Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
